Overview of CAIJING Annual Conference
Global political and economic development in 2017 can be described as daunting yet without mishap. The results of the French elections show that the tide of populism has ebbed while the economic recovery in Europe suggests that the impact of Brexit is being gradually absorbed. The new Trump administration, feeling its way forward also seems to be returning to normality in its political rationality. However, just as black swans gradually take to land, all kinds of “gray rhino” events begin to appear, such as the DPRK nuclear crisis, the Sino-Indian border dispute and Sino-US economic and trade conflicts. All eyes are on whether these events will become new tipping points for risks.
The Chinese economy is experiencing a relatively buoyant period after the rigorous elimination of excessive production capacity and the transfer of leverage to the household sector. However, no consensus has been reached on whether the macro economy is truly bottoming out, whether the bottom is sturdy, and whether a new cycle has been ushered in. In addition, the strengthening of financial oversight which compels the financial sector to take the initiative to deleverage in a bid to guard against and address systemic financial risk has become the central policy theme for the current stage, while the gradual withdrawal of the US, Europe and Japan from monetary easing is also virtually reducing China’s wiggle room in its monetary policy. Finding a way to strengthen and coordinate oversight, strike a balance between regulation and innovation, maintain sound monetary policy under the tightening effect of strong regulation, balance the strengthening of capital account control to combat capital flight and the promotion of the internationalization of RMB and the marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism as well as the gradual and orderly opening up of China’s capital account, prevent stagflation in the course of seeking a shift in capital focus from the virtual economy to the real one, and ultimately defuse risks in development…all these endeavors will test the resolve and wisdom of the decision-makers.
China’s reform and development opened up a new chapter at the 19th National Congress of the CPC, and the key antagonism in Chinese society in the new era has been identified as the one between increasing demands of our people for a better life and the imbalance and inadequacy of the growth. Seeking new changes, planning new growth, working on new industry dynamics and exploring new economic models, China soldiers on as it undergoes a complex process fraught with dilemmas. With the rising trend of artificial intelligence, a new driver for economic development from the convergence of mobile Internet platforms is becoming more apparent, and economic restructuring characterized by a booming service industry and intelligence-based industrial upgrading of traditional industries are underway. At the same time, many endeavors, such as the transformation of government functions, further definition of central and local fiscal authority, deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises, acceleration of economic marketization, the establishment of a new normal in “sincere and honest” government-business relations, and achieving substantive breakthroughs in entrepreneurship and innovation, are faced with profound challenges. It is an arduous task with a long road ahead.
Looking ahead to 2018, issues that will garner wide attention include how China will deal with the more complex international and domestic environment as well as Sino-US trade conflicts and their geopolitical risks, and how China will continue to steadily move forward with the implementation of its Belt and Road initiative as well as maintain steady economic growth. The world will also look at how the Chinese economy will find new and sustainable growth drivers through the new round of structural reforms, and how the country can do more in terms of social security, environmental protection and other areas.
Come November, the CAIJING Annual Conference will once again bring together political, business and academic leaders at home and abroad to conduct in-depth analyses of global hotspot topics, look into new economic, political, social and technological development trends in China and around the world in 2018, and jointly seek new development drivers for China and the world at large.