《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

  2015年是变局之年,全球经济复苏之路仍处于调整与失衡态势,挑战重重,金融和地缘政治风险在加剧。美国经济复苏迎来美元升值,欧洲经济低迷伴随欧元贬值,新兴市场增长乏力导致金融状况紧张;全球局部冲突带来地缘政治不稳,中东和欧洲引发难民新浪潮,全球性新问题正在滋生。

年会议程AGENDA

  • 17日
  • 18日
  • 19日
  • NOV 17th
  • NOV 18th
  • NOV 19th
时间 会议类型
10:00-17:00 参会注册
17:10-18:00 开幕式(中国公益论坛闭幕式)

开幕致辞:
王波明,财讯传媒集团董事局主席、《财经》杂志总编辑

主旨演讲:
多米尼克•德维尔潘,法国前总理
19:00-21:00 晚宴(仅限受邀嘉宾)
时间 会议类型
08:00-09:00 参会注册
09:00-09:30 主持人:
王波明,财讯传媒集团董事局主席、《财经》杂志总编辑
09:00-09:30 主旨演讲一
09:30-10:30 主旨演讲二与对话
艾伦•格林斯潘,美联储前主席
黄益平,北京大学国家发展研究院副院长、教授,中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员
10:30-11:50 全体大会一:变局挑战下的全球经济
2015年世界经济继续在多重复杂因素中行进。除美国外,其他主要经济体增长皆不如预期,欧元区经济复苏不明显,俄罗斯经济动荡卢布大跌,日本经济增长乏力,中国和印度等新兴经济体也出现了增速明显放缓的现象。除了货币政策上加大力度,各主要经济体在推进经济结构调整、寻找增长新动力方面所面临挑战,也是全球经济能否稳定增长的关键因素。

主持人:
哈继铭,高盛私人财富管理中国区副主席暨首席投资策略师

发言嘉宾:
张燕生,国家发展和改革委员会学术委员会秘书长
黄益平,北京大学国家发展研究院副院长、教授,中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员
曹远征,中国人民大学教授、博士生导师,中国银行前首席经济学家
姚余栋,中国人民银行金融研究所所长
席睿德,国际货币基金组织驻华首席代表
12:00-12:40 主旨演讲
13:00-14:20 全体大会二:国内经济解“困”与增长应对
增长动力新潜能是否正在形成?新常态下,中国经济去杠杆进程仍在持续,增速下探。短期内出现新的不确定性因素,如股市泡沫、人民币资产价格重估、全球市场动荡,加剧了市场对中国经济的悲观预期。但更多数据表明,中国经济结构调整初见成效,消费占比不断上升,投资和出口拉动作用呈现收敛之势。短期内,基建投资适度加码、对冲式货币宽松、积极财政政策发力,将适度平抑去杠杆的痛苦。中长期看,包括央地关系、财税体制、国企改革、金融改革、政府放权等将促进“市场起决定作用”,有利于中国经济累积未来30年增长的新动力潜能。
14:20-15:40 全体大会三: “一带一路”愿景与践行
“一带一路”战略代表着中国进一步融入世界的新思考和新战略,中国将主动塑造一个更有利于自身和周边发展的地区秩序,实现互利共赢。2015年,“一带一路”战略从纸面规划进入落地阶段,面临沿路广阔世界中复杂的历史、政治、人文、社会因素,如何将政策有效落实将是下一阶段挑战。2015年也是中国成为全球净资本输出国的元年,“一带一路”战略需要与中国企业国际化诉求相契合,实质推动中国企业走出去。
15:40-16:00 茶歇
16:00—17:20 全体大会四:转轨中的城镇化
城镇化逐渐步入下半场,轨道建设里程将成倍增长,但又面临地方债务压力沉重、财政收入锐减的难题。如何让轨道建设、运营,以及与之衔接的地产更多、更好地满足民众需求,如何让基建、运营财务可持续,成为城镇化下半场的新课题。人多地少的东亚部分都市,数十年来积累了丰富的立体城市(TOD站城一体化)和PPP(公私合作伙伴关系)经验,并成为城镇化转轨的有效抓手。中国如何厘清政府市场边界,有效吸纳社会资本,或将决定城镇化转轨的成败。
16:00-18:30 《财经》年度对话:政商关系新生态
市场经济的核心议题即市场与政府关系,在一定意义上也可以表述为政商关系。改革开放以来,中国企业家在体制的夹缝里成长起来,由此形成了复杂的政商关系,而官商勾结是不法官员盗用公共权力和金钱权力勾结的结果。 政府从经济领域退出,转而着力于制订规则,维护市场秩序,同时向社会提供公共服务,这是转轨国家必须解决的治理问题。十八届三中全会开启新一轮改革,核心就是“要使市场在资源配置中起决定作用”。这意味着政府在向社会放权之时,又要兼顾为社会提供公共服务之责任,同时也要退出以往由于计划经济导致的严重越位,重塑政商关系。
19:30-21:30 煮酒夜话

夜话一:房地产+:寻找新利润增长点
经过十几年快速发展,中国房地产业告别黄金时代,步入白银时代。市场由供不应求转向供求总体平衡,随着经济向新常态转型,行业高增长、高利润时代成为过去。今后将进入按需求开发、注重性价比并能提供配套服务的时代。房地产企业以跨界、转型、多元化的形式集体告别“野蛮生长”,“轻资产”势在必然。金融化、专业化、国际化、融合化趋势撬开了地产价值链两端的利润空间,而利润也将从开发环节向前段金融、后端运营服务转移,这些新的利润增长点将是房企轻资产转型的重要依托点。
夜话二:互联网法治思辨
互联网作为一种革命化的生产形态,对当前及未来社会所产生影响无法估量。然而纵观互联网业发展,一定程度上,在中国目前仍处于野蛮式发展时期。其典型特征是市场发展无序化严重,法治规范以部门规章和行政法规等低端形态为主,且变化性强、部门利益倾向明显。如何运用法治思维规范互联网业,如何运用先进法治思维调整互联网业的立法行为,是同等重要的命题。这考验着立法者和执法者的思辨能力和智慧。
夜话三:全球视角下的资产管理
中国成为全球第二大经济体,资本积累的规模已相当可观,中国机构对外投资也已成为趋势。在这样的大背景下,如何建立完善的全球资产配置模式以防范资产贬值和波动风险,并实现中国资本的长期保值增值?国外的投资模式对中国的资本管理者有何借鉴?中国资本的全球配置需要什么样的人才和机制?
夜话四:资本市场:放松管制与加强监管
一个开放的资本市场的形成,要求监管层减少行政审批干预,更好地发挥市场配置金融资源的决定性作用;而伴随着金融创新的更加复杂多样,资本市场遭遇到的风险冲击将会更多,风险传递可能会更快,这要求加强对市场的监管,加大对各种违法行为的规范,以维护资本市场的稳定,防范系统性金融风险,并树立投资者对市场的信心。“放松管制,加强监管”,应当是是未来监管改革的方向。具体来看,哪些方面应当放松管制,哪些方面又应当加强监管?如何协调二者的关系?
夜话五:大数据:云里雾里VS云开见日
当前,大数据已上升至国家战略层面,为世人耳熟能详。政府、社会、企业、个人,要么摩拳擦掌着手实践,要么跃跃欲试准备试水。一时间,大数据产业在呈星火燎原之势的同时,亦有吹大泡沫之虞。如何合理引导产业发展的方向,有效调动学术、科技、行政、产业、资本等各方力量,理性认知并真正促进大数据产业的健康发展,应当是整个行业共同努力的方向。
时间 会议类型
08:00-09:00 参会注册
09:00-09:05 主持人
09:05-09:45 主旨演讲
09:45-11:10 全体大会五:金融监管的架构与协调
以利率市场化、汇率自由化以及资本账户开放为代表的金融管制放松,在为市场注入新动力的同时,也为中国金融业的监管带来新的课题。影子银行、场外配资、网络借贷等各种创新游走于双轨体制之下,其间不乏监管套利的盛行。年中的A股股灾,暴露出分业金融监管架构体系的协调不足。随着金融业综合业务模式的拓展,以及互联网金融的跨界融合,如何搭建一个既无碍创新又可风险可控的金融监管与协调体系,成为当务之急。
11:10-12:30 全体大会六:国企改革共识与突破
十八届三中全会针对国企改革提出了一些新思路,为重启国企改革打开了窗户。两年来,各界在争议中等待落实国企改革的全新“顶层设计”。2014年9月,中共中央、国务院《关于深化国有企业改革的指导意见》终于出台,争议的出现亦属正常,有人评价具体改革过于保守,有人看到一些争议达成了重要共识,国企改革如何全面深化,面临哪些挑战,需要怎样配套?
14:00-15:20 全体大会七:中国制造业的现实与挑战
中国制造业的主体是工业2.5,尚未完成从电气化(2.0)向信息化(3.0)的过渡,但发达国家已在大踏步地从3.0向4.0(智能化)迈进。与此同时,成本更低的越南制造、印度制造、墨西哥制造又在蚕食中国制造的市场。首尾受敌的中国制造业能否保住世界第一制造大国的地位,能否实现从2.0向4.0的跨越?
15:20-15:40 茶歇
15:40-17:00 高峰论坛一:跨界、融合与创变
缘于艺术的跨界似乎正在经济市场上演。随着中国经济与国际市场深度融合,新常态下的经济格局也随之改变,尤其是“互联网+”浪潮的来袭,深入各行各业,“互联网+金融”、“ 互联网+地产”、“ 互联网+制造”……让中国经济格局呈现跨界、融合的特点。互联网颠覆了传统思维格局,变革下的市场已不简单把它当作工具运用,更多的是当作一种全新的思维去思考;跨界思维,就是用多角度、多视野去看待问题,和提出解决方案的一种思维方式。
15:40-17:00 高峰论坛二:医疗改革与创新
中国医疗体制改革逐渐进入深水区,取消以药养医、支付制度改革、医生自由执业等,每一步都很重要,推进却殊为不易。同时,各地正在探索新的路径和模式,医院管理模式创新、医药产业创新、医保支付制度创新,无不显示出市场的活力。中国需要什么样的医疗体系?如何才能实现真正意义上的医疗服务、药品生产流通、医保支付“三医联动”?如何以创新带动整个行业的发展?都是医药行业持续关注的话题。
17:00-17:40 闭幕式
主持人:

主旨演讲:
备注:以上所列时间表、发言人均以本议程付印时所确认情况为依据。如有变动,请以会议当天公布为准。
Time Conference-style
10:00-17:00 Registration
17:10-18:00 Opening Ceremony (Closing Ceremony of China Philanthropy Forum)
Opening Address:
WANG Boming
Chairman of SEEC Media Group and Editor-in-Chief of CAIJING Magazine

Keynote Speeches
19:30-21:00 Dinner Banquet
Time Conference-style
08:00-09:00 Registration
09:00-09:05 Moderator:
WANG Boming, Chairman of SEEC Media Group and Editor-in-Chief of CAIJING Magazine
09:00-09:15 Address
09:15-09:30 Keynote Speech 1
09:30-10:30 Keynote Speech and Dialogue
10:30-11:50 Plenary Session 1: The Global Economy in the Face of Challenging Changes
The world economy continues to face many complexities in 2015. With the exception of the US, growth of major economies has been lackluster. There are no noticeable signs of recovery in the euro zone; the Russian economy is in turmoil as the country's currency plummets; growth in Japan is sluggish while China, India and other emerging economies are showing signs of a significant slowdown. The key to steady growth of the global economy will lie in how major economies push for economic structuring and seek new growth drivers, in addition to more effective use of the monetary policy.
12:00-12:40 Keynote Speeches
13:00-14:20 Plenary Session 2: Relieving China's Economic Difficulties and Growth Response
Whether the new growth potential is being formed? In China’s “new normal”, economic deleveraging persists and growth slows down. New uncertainties that have emerged recently, such as the stock market bubble, yuan revaluation of assets and global market turmoil, are exacerbating the market's pessimism on the Chinese economy. However, more data shows that China's economic restructuring starts to pay off. The consumption ratio is rising while the economy is shifting away from investment- and export-led growth. In the near future, the deleveraging difficulties are set to ease as the increase in infrastructure investment, monetary easing and proactive fiscal policies take effect. In the medium and long term, initiatives such as the relationship between the central and local governments, reform of the taxation system and state-owned enterprises, financial reform and government decentralization will promote the decisive role of the market, which is instrumental in identifying new growth drivers potential for China in the next three decades.
14:20-15:40 Plenary Session 3: "One Belt, One Road": Vision and Practice
The "One Belt, One Road" strategy represents China's new thinking and new strategy on its further integration into the world, through which China will take the initiative in shaping a new regional order that is more conducive to the development of China and its neighbors and to achieving a mutually beneficial and win-win situation. In 2015, the "One Belt, One Road" strategy moves from the planning stage to actual implementation. Effective implementation in the face of complex historical, political, cultural and social factors along the routes will be a challenge for the next stage. 2015 also marks the year in which China becomes a net capital exporter. The "One Belt, One Road" strategy should meet the aspirations of Chinese enterprises to expand their business globally and really help them "go global".
15:40-16:00 Tea Break
16:00-17:20 Plenary Session 4: Transition in Urbanization
Urbanization in China is gradually moving into the agenda and the length of railway to be constructed can be expected to see a multifold increase. Ensuring that railway construction and operation as well as real estate adjacent to railways can better meet the needs of the people and ensuring the sustainability of infrastructure and operational finances against the backdrop of heavy local debt and sharp declines in fiscal revenue will be the new issues facing urbanization in the latter stages. A number of densely populated cities in East Asia have accumulated decades of experience in three-dimensional cities (TOD city integration) and PPP (public-private partnerships) and they act as effective starting points for the transition of urbanization. The success of the transition of urbanization in China may very well hinge on how China can work out its government-market boundaries and effectively absorb social capital.
16:00-18:30 CAIJING Annual Dialogue: New Environment for Government-Business Relations
The core issue in market economy is the relationship between the market and the government, which can also be described as government-business relations in a sense. Since the reform and opening up in China, Chinese entrepreneurs have found themselves in a tight corner when developing their business, thereby forming a complex government-business relationship. However, collusion between government officials and businesses is the result of unscrupulous officials abusing their public power and working for financial gains. It is a problem which is must be solved for the Government’s withdrawal from the economic sectortofocus on the development of rules, maintainingmarket order and providing public services. The new round of reforminitiated at the Third Plenary Session of 18thCPC Central Committeehas at its core toallow the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources”. This means while the government relinquishes certain powers, it will also afford the responsibilityto provide the public services for the society. At the same time it should withdraw from the past due to serious offside due to planned economy to reshape government-business relations.
19:30-21:30 Nightcap
Panel 1:Real Estate+:Looking for New Areas of Profit Growth
After more than a decade of rapid development, China’s real estate industry is entering the silver age as it leaves the golden age. The demand scenario has changed from undersupply to overall balance of supply and demand. As the Chinese economy makes the transition to a new normal, rapid growth and high profit in the industry have become a thing of the past. Going forward, it will be an era of development based on demand, with the focus on cost effectiveness and the provision of ancillary services. Real estate enterprises are bidding farewell to "barbaric growth" by engaging in cross-sector operations, transformation and diversification, and being asset-light has become imperative. The trend of financialization, specialization, internationalization and convergence is opening up profit potential across the real estate value chain, and the generation of profits will also shift from the development segment to the financial segment in the early stage and operational services in the latter stage. These new areas of profit growth will be an important fulcrum for the asset-light transformation of real estate enterprises.

Panel 2: Thoughts on the Rule of Law in the Internet
The impact of the Internet as a revolutionary form of production on the society today and tomorrow is unmeasurable. However, looking back at the development of the Internet industry, this sector in China is still in the early days of "uncivilized" development to some extent. Its typical features include serious disorder in market development, the existence of the rule of law and regulations only in the low-end format of departmental rules and administrative regulations, which are prone to changes and show apparent leanings in favor of some departments. How to regulate the Internet industry by applying the rule of law and how to adjust the ways laws are enacted in the sector guided by the rule of law are equally important issues. This tests the capacity for critical thinking and the wisdom of legislators and law enforcers.

Panel 3: Asset Management in the Global Perspective
Having become the world's second largest economy, China has accumulated a considerable amount of capital, and foreign investment by Chinese institutions has become a trend. Against such a backdrop, how to establish a sound global asset allocation model so as to guard against the risk of asset depreciation and volatility and achieve long-term preservation and appreciation of Chinese capital? What can China's capital managers learn from the investment models of other countries? What kind of talent and mechanisms is necessary for the global allocation of Chinese capital?

Panel 4: Capital Market: Deregulation and the Strengthening of Supervision
The formation of an open capital market calls for reduced administrative examination, approval and intervention by regulators so that better play can be given to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of financial resources. At the same time, as financial innovation becomes more complex and diverse, the capital market is set to encounter greater impact and risks, and the transfer of risks may become faster. This calls for the strengthening of market supervision and the intensification of efforts to curb illegal activities so to maintain stability in the capital market, firmly guard against systemic financial risks, and establish investor confidence in the market. The future direction of regulatory reform should be deregulation and the strengthening of supervision. Specifically, what should be subjected to deregulation and strengthened supervision, and what can be done to coordinate the relationship between the two?

Panel 5: Big Data: Obscurity VS Visibility
Today, Big Data has been escalated to the level of national strategy and become a household phrase. The government, society, enterprises and individuals are either already involved in some sort of Big Data operations, or making active preparations for it. As well as being an overnight sensation, the Big Data industry is widely suspected of being overhyped. It is therefore imperative for everyone involved in the Big Data industry to effectively guide the direction of the industry’s development, mobilizing various forces, e.g. academic, technical, administrative, industrial and capital resources, thereby boosting the healthy development of Big Data businesses after acquiring an accurate understanding of what Big Data actually is.
Time Conference-style
08:00-09:00 Registration
09:00-09:05 Moderator
09:05-09:45 Keynote Speeches
09:45-11:10 Plenary Session 5: Architecture and Coordination of Financial Supervision
Financial deregulation, as represented by market-based interest rate, exchange rate liberalization and capital account opening up, while injecting new vitality into the market, also poses new regulation issues for China's financial industry. Shadow banking, off-market margin lending, Internet lending and other innovative forms of financing are undertaken in a dual-track system, involving regulatory arbitrage in a lot of cases. The A-share market crash this year exposed the lack of coordination among separate financial regulatory frameworks. With the expansion of the integrated business model in the financial sector and cross-border integration of Internet finance, there is a pressing need to establish a financial supervision and coordination system which will not inhabit innovation and whose risks are controllable.
11:10-12:30 Plenary Session 6: Consensus and Breakthrough of Reform of State-Owned Enterprises
The Third Plenary Session of 18thCPC Central Committee put forward some new ideas on the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and opened the door to the resumption of SOE reform. In the past two years, the world has been waiting for the new "top-level design" for the implementation of SOE reform amid much debate. In September 2014, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council finally unveiled the Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Reform of State-owned Enterprises. The emergence of the dispute is normal. Some believe that the specific reform measures contained therein are too conservative, while others note that important consensus has been reached on certain issues. How should SOE reform be deepened in a comprehensive way? What are the challenges ahead and what kind of support is critical? All these questions require further consideration.
14:00-15:20 Plenary Session 7: The Reality and Challenges of China's Manufacturing Industry
The principal part of China’s manufacturing industry is at Industry 2.5 and it has yet to make the transition from electrification (2.0) to informatization(3.0). However, developed countries are making great strides in advancing from 3.0 to 4.0 (intelligentization). At the same time, goods manufactured at lower costs in Vietnam, India and Mexico are encroaching on the markets for products made in China. Can China's manufacturing industry, challenged on multiple fronts, keep its position as a manufacturing superpower in the world and can it leapfrog from 2.0 to 4.0?
15:20-15:40 Tea Break
15:40-17:00 Summit Forum 1: Crossover, Integration and Changes
The crossover practice that began in art seems to be replicated in the economic sphere today. With in-depth integration of the Chinese economy into the international market, changes are occurring in the economic landscape under the "new normal". The emergence of "Internet+", in particular, is observed across sectors and industries. Thanks to "Internet + finance", "Internet + real estate", "Internet + manufacturing" and the like, the economic landscape in China is now characterized by the crossing of borders and sectors as well as integration. Internet has upended many traditional ways of thinking. And the market that is undergoing transformation no longer uses the Internet simply as a tool. Instead, it now represents a new way of thinking, i.e. cross-sector thinking which allows a multi-angle and multi-perspective view of issues, and also a way of thinking that offers solutions.
15:40-17:00 Summit Forum 2: Health Care Reform and Innovation
China's health care reform is gradually deepening, with the ending of the subsidization of medical services with profits from the sale of medicines, overhaul of the payment system and approval for doctors to practice at multiple facilities. Each step is important, but progress is hard to come by. At the same time, different parts of the country are exploring new paths and models. Innovations in hospital management model, the pharmaceutical industry and health care payment system show the vitality of the market. What kind of healthcare system does China need? How can we achieve reforms in all three interconnected areas of health services, pharmaceutical production and distribution and health care insurance in the true sense? How can we bring about an innovation-driven development of the industry as a whole? These are topics of continuous discussion in health care.
17:00-17:40 Closing Ceremony
Moderator
Keynote Speech
Note: The above schedule and list of speakers are accurate at the time of printing and subject to change. The final version shall prevail on the day of event.

《财经》年会:2016预测与战略

参会联系人刘女士 (86)10-85657519

 李女士 (86)10-85651179

赞助合作朱先生 (86)10-85657112

媒体合作王女士 (86)10-85651093

《财经》年会:2012预测与战略