《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

  2012年是深度调整之年。欧债危机持续蔓延,美日复苏动能不足,金砖国家增长乏力,中东北非痛苦转型,亚太海域暗潮汹涌。放眼全球,结构性调整经历阵痛,新一轮政经重组方兴未艾。

  值此变动年代,中国平稳完成新一届领导层的代际更替,更可从容重启全面改革议程。在30年高速增长之后,如何为次增长寻觅可持续动能,应对社会转型的全新挑战,考验着决策者的政治智慧和广泛社会群体的共识。

《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

  • 28日
  • 29日
  • NOV 28th
  • NOV 29th
时间 会议类型
08:00-08:30 参会注册
08:30-08:35 开幕致辞
王波明,《财经》杂志总编辑
08:35-09:05 主旨演讲
成思危,原全国人民代表大会常务委员会副委员长
09:05-09:25 主旨演讲
约翰·霍华德,澳大利亚前总理
09:25-10:55 议题一:中国、美国与全球经济
始于2008年秋季的金融危机,重创全球经济,欧美主要经济体和金砖国家普遍采用量化宽松货币政策和积极财政政策加以应对。然而,植根于全球不平衡的经济危机,却远非货币“放水”所能解决,财政刺激与投资推动的效应递减,更令新的政经对策难以抉择。2012年以来,欧债危机持续蔓延,凸显结构调整 缺位,经济复苏乏力。
世界经济长期低迷几成定局,中国必须重新审视可持续发展之道。在30年高速增长之后,如何为中速、甚至低速增长寻觅可持续动能,应对社会转型的全新挑战,考验着决策者的政治智慧和广泛社会群体的共识。如何在全球经济变局下积极参与全球治理,共觅中国可持续发展之动力与路径,既是中国的挑战,亦是中国之机遇。

主持人
苏尼尔·库马尔,芝加哥大学布斯商学院院长、George Pratt Shultz运营管理教授

对话嘉宾
奥斯坦·古尔斯比,前奥巴马总统经济顾问委员会主席、芝加哥大学布斯商学院讲座教授
兰德尔·克罗兹纳,前美国联邦储蓄委员会理事、前布什总统经济顾问委员会成员、芝加哥大学布斯商学院经济学教授
林毅夫,前世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家、北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长
雷鼎鸣,香港科技大学商学院副院长、经济学系主任、教授
10:55-12:25 议题二:中国经济2012年回顾与2013年展望
2012年,在外需不振和增长方式调整双重压力下,中国经济增速出现持续下滑。如何看待经济增速放缓,是否需要新一轮经济刺激政策,各界众说纷纭。在即将到来的2013年中,中国将面临政府换届,国际经济据势也更加纷繁复杂。中国经济如何实现推进结构转型和保持一定增速的双重目标?如何避免短期举措妨害长期愿景?如何通过深化改革来寻觅新的可持续增长动能?

主持人
何刚,《财经》杂志执行主编、《哈佛商业评论》中文版主编

对话嘉宾
陈东琪,国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院副院长
曹远征,中国银行首席经济学家、博源基金会理事兼首席经济学家
乔虹,摩根士丹利大中华区首席经济学家、董事总经理、博源基金会特约经济学
哈继铭,高盛投资管理部中国副主席暨首席投资策略师、博源基金会特约经济学家
12:30-13:00 午宴主旨演讲
主持人戴小京
中国证券市场研究设计中心常务干事、财讯传媒集团总裁

主旨演讲:陈德铭,中华人民共和国商务部部长
13:00-13:45 《财经》对话

主持人芮成钢,中央电视台主持人

对话嘉宾瑞·戴利欧,美国桥水投资公司创始人兼首席投资官
高西庆,中国投资有限责任公司副董事长、总经理
13:45-15:15 议题三:城镇化进程与土地制度变革
深化土地制度改革是破除城乡二元结构的必由之路,其现实意义和迫切性日益突出。近年来,国土资源部等部委牵头进行了诸如城乡建设用地增减挂钩、征地制度改革、集体建设用地流转等主题的试点,广东、成都、重庆、等省市亦先后试水,积累了不少改革经验。但由于部分政策存在争议,全国层面的土地制度改革一直未实质推动。如何让农民分享土地增值收益?以公共利益为名进行的征地如何规范有序?政府经营土地制度下的种种扭曲行为如何杜绝?土地制度改革牵一发而动全身,要实现城乡统筹发展,需要从全局、战略高度审视和改革现行土地制度,真正推进以现代农业为基石的中国城市化进程。

主持人
李铁,国家发展和改革委员会城市和小城镇改革发展中心主任

对话嘉宾
华生,燕京华侨大学校长
胡存智,中华人民共和国国土资源部副部长
周其仁,北京大学国家发展研究院教授、博源基金会学术委员
黄小虎,中国土地学会副理事长

15:30-18:00 《财经》年度对话:国有企业与国有资本
国企体制是中国当前最需突破而又最难突破的一个重大经济问题。2012年以来,国企改革议题又热,各方立场主张迥异。这是上一轮国企改革争论的继续。国企改革下一步如何走?朝哪个方向走?已是不可回避之题。国企是载体,其本质是国有资本,国企进退实则国资的流动和重新配置,更需还原其属性,并将其运用到与民生相关的公共产品上。这既涉及一系列的重大理论与观念问题,又涉及中国经济增长方式转变、经济结构调整及市场经济制度建设等一系列政策安排,亟须正本清源,以期凝聚共识。

开场致辞
何迪,博源基金会总干事
主持人
钱颖一,清华大学经济管理学院院长

对话嘉宾
陈清泰,前国务院发展研究中心党组书记、副主任
秦晓,博源基金会理事长
吉恩·蒂德里克,前世界银行工业经济高级经济学家
沃伊切赫·达布罗夫斯基,波兰工业发展局局长
高梁,前国家发展和改革委员会经济体制与管理研究所国有资产研究中心主任
盛洪,天则经济研究所所长
18:00-18:30 主旨演讲
郭树清,中国证券监督管理委员会主席
18:30-20:30 《财经》年会主题晚宴:中美商界领袖对话
主持人:
田薇,中央电视台主持人
对话嘉宾
李若谷,中国进出口银行董事长、行长
傅成玉,中国石油化工集团公司董事长
张红力,中国工商银行副行长
麦克,摩根士丹利荣誉董事长
韦斯利·艾登斯,堡垒投资集团联合创始人、主管、董事会联席主席
苏安迪,《财富》杂志总编辑
时间 会议类型
09:00-09:05 主持人
何迪,博源基金会总干事
09:05-09:35 主旨演讲:
陈锡文中央农村工作领导小组副组长、办公室主任
中央财经领导小组办公室副主任
09:35-11:15 议题一:挑战与改革突破口
历经30年高速增长后,中国经济开始迈入中速增长新阶段。全球化使产业格局与服务业细分态势在金融危机后出现重大调整,而中国内部产业结构调整、产能过剩的城市化进程及服务业仍显薄弱和滞后。难局未破之际,人口老龄化、劳动力成本上涨、资源和环境不可持续等接踵而来。这既需顶层设计,更赖整体配套改革推进,亦需在政府职能、财税体制、收入分配、国企改革、土地制度等难点取得实质性突破。

主题演讲兼主持
吴敬琏,国务院发展研究中心高级研究员、博源基金会顾问委员

发言嘉宾
蔡昉,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长
秦晓,博源基金会理事长
许善达,全国政协经济委员会委员、国家税务总局原副局长、中国注册税务师协会会长、博源基金会顾问委员
马骏,德意志银行董事总经理、大中华区首席经济学家、博源基金会学术委员
11:15-11:45 主旨演讲
11:45-13:15 午餐
13:15-14:45 议题二:从法制经济到法治社会
市场经济、法治社会与民主政治,攸关中国未来命运。30年的持续发展与改革突破,市场经济体制所需的器物层面一马当先,而法治与民主建设仍负重难前,全面改革乃道阻且长。综观中国社会,在个人价值和个人权利为核心的社会意识方面,公权对私权的侵害仍是一大问题。法治经济、公权私权如何平衡?财产权与人身权如何实现双重保护?建立法治经济,中国还需突破哪些关键改革?法治社会又需怎样的司法归位、权责厘清和政治环境?

主持人
姚洋,北京大学国家发展研究院副院长

发言嘉宾
江平,中国政法大学终身教授
吴晓灵,第十一届全国人民代表大会常务委员会委员、财政经济委员会副主任委员、博源基金会理事
胡德平,第十一届中国人民政治协商会议中央委员会常务委员、经济委员会副主任
孙立平,清华大学社会学系教授
童之伟,华东政法大学宪法学教授
14:45-16:15 议题三:深化金融改革与金融业挑战
随着经济发展水平提高及金融危机后新的经济环境,中国金融改革的下一步关键何在?利率和汇率的改革正逐步深化,理顺资本价格、提高资本效率还面临哪些重要挑战?面对新的资本、经营环境,在政策性保护经营口优势逐步失去之时,银行等金融机构如何调整自身业务、加强公司治理、防范系统风险、确保持续经营?面对开放与竞争,市场化退出机制如何建立?

发言嘉宾
胡晓炼,中国人民银行副行长
董文标,中国民生银行董事长
朱小黄,中信银行行长
李小加,香港交易及结算所有限公司集团行政总裁
16:15-17:45 议题四:高科技与新媒体转型
在更广义的TMT领域,新技术与新应用层出不穷,产品与服务更接近大众和商业的真实需求。以智能手机、云计算等为代表的新一代互联网、特别是移动互联的硬件、软件和应用方案创新,将怎样深刻改变产业竞争和社会结构,创造新的互联社会?科技巨变时期,通常意义上的媒体内容、形态、运营模式均在发生重要裂变。内容为王、技术主导、应用优先等新媒体整合探索,能否殊途同归于公众最基本、最真实的对有效信息的个性化需求?在向新媒体转型的不确定进程中,报刊、广电等传统媒体和第一代互联网平台面临着怎样的历史性挑战与机遇,又将如何在竞争与合作中共创、共享新的未来?

主持人
杜纳德,路透社新闻北亚区总经理

发言嘉宾
苏安迪,《财富》杂志总编
田溯宁,宽带资本董事长
沈南鹏,红杉资本中国基金创始及执行合伙人
马克·泰勒,微软大中华区开发者及平台事业部总经理
17:45-18:25 闭幕演讲
托尼·布莱尔:英国前首相
18:30-20:00 晚宴
19:30-21:00 煮酒夜话
夜话一:后紧缩时代的地产格局
本轮楼市调控,已是第三个年头,而全国性的限购令运行已逾两年,房地产市场在各个层面均出现积极变化,但成果仍需巩固,调控尚在持续。随着调控深入,本轮楼市调控中最具行政色彩的限购工具也面临退出压力,地产市场将最终进入后限购时代。如何防止房价在限购令退出后出现反弹?如何为限购令的顺利退出创造制度性的备选方案?均成为地产行业的重大命题。
主持人
马克,《财经》杂志副主编

发言嘉宾
任志强,华远地产股份有限公司董事长
陈淮,原中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部政策研究中心主任
蔡洪平,德意志银行亚洲区投资银行部主席、亚太区执行委员会委员
钟彬,全国工商联房地产商会秘书长
李明,远洋地产控股有限公司董事局主席兼行政总裁
毛大庆,万科集团执行副总裁、北京万科总经理
夜话二:养老制度困境与改革方向
中国自上世纪90年代建立起城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度,其运行至今已近20年,颇多配套制度并未理顺,在人口急速老龄化的背景下,养老金的财务可持续性面临危机,亟待全面改革。近年来,养老金扩大覆盖面、新农保、新城保建立并扩至全国,虽颇有成效,但养老基金投资运营体制一度提上日程,至今尚未明确时间表,延迟退休等参数改革在一轮热议之后,也由官方澄清近期不会实施。养老金问题涉及千家万户,牵一发而动全身,目前中国养老制度面临的主要困境和下一步改革出路何在?既需改革者顶层设计、高屋建瓴,更需充分讨论、厘清思路、限定事实和问题,找寻方向。
主持人
靳丽萍,《财经》杂志执行主编

发言嘉宾
何平,中华人民共和国人力资源与社会保障部社会保障研究所所长
郑秉文,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所所长、世界社会保障研究中心主任
杨燕绥,清华大学公共管理学院教授
胡继晔,中国政法大学法和经济研究中心副教授
熊军,全国社会保障基金理事会规划研究部副主任
夜话三:律师在法治进程中的角色
无力感与高风险,以及众多法定权利的落空,使得律师执业环境面临困境。中国律师下一步怎么办?应该如何定位自己并防范职业风险?律师将在中国改革进程中扮演何种角色?
主持人
罗昌平,《财经》杂志副主编

发言嘉宾
张思之,中国北京市吴栾赵阎律师事务所执业律师
张青松,中华全国律师协会刑事业务委员会副秘书长
浦志强,北京市华一律师事务所合伙人
徐昕,北京理工大学法学院教授
陈有西,京衡律师集团董事长、中华全国律师协会宪法人权委员会副主任
斯伟江,上海大邦律师事务所合伙人
夜话四:民间金融开放/小微金融
民间金融开放一直呼声不断,温州金融改革让民资再次看到希望,但缺乏可实施细则及具体行动,金融开放仍是目前民资进入金融业的最大障碍。
主持人:
乔晓会,《财经》杂志主编助理

发言嘉宾
汤敏,国务院参事、友成企业家扶贫基金会常务副理事长
朱宁,上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长、教授
唐宁,宜信公司创始人、首席执行官
刘利刚,澳新银行大中华区经济研究主管
朱海斌,摩根大通中国首席经济学家、大中华区经济研究主管
夜话五:奢侈品中国战略
中国已成为全球第二大奢侈品销售市场。未来三年中全球奢侈品市场增量为1800亿欧元,其中近200亿欧元的消费将在中国市场发生,竞争亦将日趋激烈。同时,中国日渐成熟的消费行为,随着消费者对奢侈品理解的加深,奢侈品市场可能重新洗牌。多年领先的奢侈品牌如何保持强势?暂时落后或进场较晚的奢侈品牌又如何后来居上?中国优秀本土品牌是否也有机会分羹奢侈盛宴?
主持人:
程明霞,《哈佛商业评论》中文版主编助理

发言嘉宾
让-克劳德·比弗,宇舶表全球董事会主席
李佳琦,观澜湖集团执行董事
周婷,财富品质研究院院长
韩微文,贝恩公司全球合伙人
Eva SOOHOO,,海蓝之谜品牌总经理
夜话六:清洁能源产业发展之道
全球能源格局正在从以化石能源为主体向绿色能源发展转变。如何在资源枯竭的远景担忧下寻求可再生发展新模式,是清洁能源产业发展当仁不让的时代重任。然而,国际贸易争端、全球产能过剩、资本国际化困难等问题同样困扰着中国清洁能源产业的发展,伴随清洁能源的毛利逐步下滑,中国清洁能源投资出现大幅降温的端倪,怎样践行低碳经济发展的中国道路成为中国清洁能源产业发展面对的现实命题。
主持人:
苏琦,《财经》杂志副主编

发言嘉宾
王勇,汉能控股集团总裁
吴昌华,气候组织大中华区总裁
李俊峰,国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心主任、研究员
梅德文,北京环境交易所总裁
王文静,,中国科学院电工研究所研究员
拉斯·斯托德,,Solibro公司首席技术官、董事总经理
备注:以上所列时间表、发言人均以本议程付印时所确认情况为依据。如有变动,请以会议当天公布为准。
Time Conference-style
08:00-08:30 Registration
08:30-08:35 Opening Remarks
WANG Boming, Editor-in-Chief, CAIJING Magazine
08:35-09:05 Keynote Speech
CHENG Siwei,Former Vice Chairman, the Standing Committee, The National People’s Congress
09:05-09:25 Keynote Speech
John HOWARD, Former Prime Minister, Australia
09:25-10:55 Session I: An Economic Outlook for China, the U.S. and the World Economy
As the global economy took a heavy hit from the financial crisis starting in the fall of 2008, major economies in Europe and North America and the BRICS countries generally resorted to quantitative easing in monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy in response. Nonetheless, money printing proved to be far from being able to address the economic crisis rooted in global imbalances. As the effects of fiscal stimulus and government-backed investment programs gradually diminish, national governments have been caught in policy bind over any new political and economic countermeasures. The European debt crisis has continued to simmer since early 2012, highlighting an absence of structural adjustments and the anemic economic recovery.
Given these difficulties for reviving growth around the glove, China must re-examine its path to sustainable development. Following 30 years of rapid growth, how could China find sustainable driving forces for its moderate or even slow growth going forward and cope with new challenges arising from social transformation? This question will test policymakers’ political wisdom and the consensus of a wide range of social groups. Against the backdrop of the changing global economic landscape, how could China actively participate in global governance and seek drivers for and path to sustainable development? This question not only presents a challenge but also an opportunity to China.
Moderator:Sunil KUMARDean and George Pratt Shultz Professor of Operations Management, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

Speakers
Austan D. GOOLSBEE,Former Chairman, President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers; Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
Randall S. KROSZNER,Former Member, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System; Former Member, President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers; Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
Justin LIN,Former Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank; Honorary Dean, National School of Development, Peking University
Francis LUI,Associate Dean, Head of the Department of Economics and Professor, Business School, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
10:55-12:25 Session II: China's Economy: Review of 2012 and Outlook for 2013
Affected by sluggish external demand and economic restructuring, the Chinese economy displayed a sustained slowdown in 2012. The market holds divergent views on how one should look at the slowdown and whether there is a need for a new round of economic stimulus. With the approaching leadership transition at the Chinese government and the anticipation of an even more complex global situation in 2013, what are the ways for China to reach its dual goals of promoting economic restructuring and maintaining a certain rate of economic growth? What are the ways to prevent short-term measures from compromising its long-term visions? How can it achieve a new momentum for sustainable growth through deepened reform?
Moderator:HE GangManaging Editor, CAIJING Magazine; Editor, Chinese Edition, Harvard Business Review

Speakers
CHEN Dongqi,Vice President, Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development Reform and Commission
CAO Yuanzheng,Chief Economist, Bank of China; Board Member & Chief Economist, Boyuan Foundation
Helen QIAO,Chief Economist of Greater China and Managing Director, Morgan Stanley.; Guest Economist, Boyuan Foundation
HA Jiming,Vice Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of Investment Strategy Group, Investment Management Division, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; Guest Economist, Boyuan Foundation
12:30-13:00 Luncheon
Keynote Speech:
Moderator:
DAI XiaojingExecutive Director, Stock Exchange Executive Council; President, SEEC Media Group Limited

Keynote Speech:
CHEN Deming:Minister, Ministry of Commerce, The People's Republic of China
13:00-13:45 CAIJING Dialogue
Moderator:
RUI Chenggang:Director and Anchor, China Central Television

Speakers:
Ray DALIOFounder and Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, L.P.
GAO XiqingVice Chairman and President, China Investment Corporation
13:45-15:30 Session III: Urbanization and Land System Reform
Deepening the reform of the land system is the only way to break down the urban-rural dual structure in China. Its practical significance and urgency have become increasingly prominent. In recent years, the Ministry of Land and Resources and other ministries have launched a few pilot schemes, with themes including “Linking the Increase in Land Used for Urban Construction with the Decrease in Land Used for Rural Construction”, “Reform of Land Expropriation System”, and “Collective Construction Land Transfer”. Guangdong, Chengdu, Chongqing, and other provinces and municipalities have tested waters in succession, building up a lot of reform experience. Nonetheless, due to contention surrounding some of the policies, land reform on the national level has yet to see an effective kickoff. How could China allow farmers to share the benefit of appreciation in land value? How could China secure regulated and orderly land acquisition in the name of public interests? How could China put an end to all the distortions under the system of land management by government? The reform of land is set to affect a lot of interests. To achieve coordinated development of urban and rural areas, China should examine and reform the existing land system from a strategic perspective, effectively advancing China's urbanization process with modern agriculture as its cornerstone.
Moderator:LI TieDirector General, China Center for Urban Development, National Development and Reform Commission

Speakers
HU Cunzhi,Vice Minister, Ministry of Land and Resources, The People's Republic of China
ZHOU Qiren,Professor, National School of Development, Peking University; Academic Committee Member, Boyuan Foundation
HUANG Xiaohu,Vice Chairman, China Land Science Society
HUA Sheng,President, Yanjing Overseas Chinese University
15:30-18:00 CAIJING Annual Dialogue: State-owned Enterprises & State-owned Assets
For China, the state-owned enterprise system is the most challenging major economic issue that should be addressed in the most urgent fashion. The reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been hotly debated since the beginning of 2012, as propositions from stakeholders vary dramatically. This marks an extension of the previous round of debates centering on the reform of SOEs. What’s the next step for the reform of SOEs? Which direction should the reform take? These issues are unavoidable nowadays. The SOEs are only vehicles and represent state-owned assets by their very nature. SOEs’ entry into or exit from specific sectors actually represent the flow and reallocation of state-owned assets. More importantly, the reform should aim at restoring SOEs’ original attribute, which in essence is offering public goods related to people's livelihood. This will not only involve a series of major theoretical and conceptual issues but also relate to a series of policy arrangements for the transformation of China's economic growth model, economic restructuring and the development of market-based economic system. There is an urgent need to sort things out and build consensus.
Opening Addressr:HE DiDirector-General, Boyuan Foundation

Moderator:QIAN YingyiDean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Speakers
CHEN Qingtai,Former CPC Secretary and Vice President, Development Research Center of the State Council
QIN Xiao,Chairman of the Board, Boyuan Foundation
Gene TIDRICK,Former Senior Economist, World Bank
Wojciech DABROWSKI,President, Industrial Development Agency, Poland
GAO Liang,Former Director, Research Center of State-owned Assets, Institute of Economic System and Management, National Development and Reform Commission
SHENG Hong,Director, Unirule Institute of Economics
18:00-18:30 Keynote Speech
GUO ShuqingChairman, China Securities Regulatory Commission
18:30-20:30 CAIJING Annual Conference Themed Dinner Party: Dialogue Between Chinese & American Business Leaders

Moderator:TIAN WeiAnchor, China Central Television
Speakers
LI Ruogu,Chairman and President, Export-Import Bank of China
FU Chengyu,,Chairman, Sinopec Group ZHANG Hongli, Vice President, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
John MACK,Chairman Emeritus, Morgan Stanley Wesley EDENS, Co-Founder, Principal and Co-Chairman of the Board of Directors, Fortress Investment Group LLC
ZHANG Hongli,Vice President, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China John MACK, Chairman Emeritus, Morgan Stanley
Wesley EDENS,,Co-Founder, Principal and Co-Chairman of the Board of Directors, Fortress Investment Group LLC
Andy SERWER,Managing Editor, Fortune
Time Conference-style
09:00-09:05 Moderator:
HE Di:Director-General, Boyuan Foundation
09:05-09:35 Keynote Speech
CHEN Xiwen:Vice Chairman and Director of the Office, Central Rural Work Leading Group; Vice Chairman, Office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs
09:35-11:15 Main conference
Session I: Challenges & Reform Breakthroughs
Following 30 years of rapid growth, China's economy has now entered into a new stage of moderate growth. Globalization process brought about significant adjustments to the industrial landscape and segmentation in the service industry following the financial crisis. China's industrial restructuring, urbanization, which is plagued by excess capacity, and service sector still appear to be weak and backward. The persistence of these problems is further compounded by the emergence of such issues as population aging, rising labor costs, and mounting resource and environmental pressures. To meet these challenges, China will not only need top level designs but also rely more on the implementation of a set of supporting reform measures. In addition, substantial breakthroughs are also needed to in complex areas including government functions, fiscal and taxation system, income distribution, the reform of SOEs, and land system.
Keynote Speech & Moderator:WU JinglianSenior Research Associate, Development Research Center of the State Council; Advisory Committee Member, Boyuan Foundation
Speakers
CAI Fang, Director, Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
QIN Xiao,Chairman of the Board, Boyuan Foundation
XU Shanda,Member, Committee for Economic Affairs, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference; Former Vice-Commissioner, the State Administration of Taxation, the People's Republic of China; President, Chinese Certified Tax Agent Association; Advisory Committee Member, Boyuan Foundation
MA Jun,Managing Director and Chief Economist for Greater China, Deutsche Bank; Academic Committee Member, Boyuan Foundation
11:15-11:45 Keynote Speech
13:15-14:45 Session II: From an Economy Governed by the Rule of Law to a Whole Society Governed by the Rule of Law
The market economy, the society based on the rule of law and democratic politics are of great importance for the future of China. During the 30 years of sustained development and breakthroughs in reform, material progress brought by the market economy system has taken the lead, while the progress of China’s democracy and legal construction remains slow. A more comprehensive reform will likely meet resistance and take a longer way forward. In terms of social consciousness that has personal value and individual rights at the core, public power’s violation of private right remain a big problem nationwide. How could China strike a balance between economic development and democracy, and between public power and private right? How can the dual protection of property right and personal right be achieved? To develop an economy ruled by law, what key reforms need to see breakthroughs in China? To build a society ruled by law, what kind of judicial system, accountability system and political environment does China need?
Moderator:YAO YangDeputy Dean, National School of Development, Peking University
Speakers
JIANG Ping,Tenured Professor, China University of Political Science and Law
WU Xiaoling,Member of the Standing Committee and Vice Chairman of the Financial and Economic Committee, the National People's Congress, The People's Republic of China; Board Member, Boyuan Foundation
HU Deping,Member of the Standing Committee and Deputy Director of the State Economic and Trade Commission, Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
SUN Liping,,Professor, Department of Sociology, Tsinghua University
TONG Zhiwei,,Professor of Constitutional Law, East China University of Political Science and Law
14:45-16:15 Session III: Deepening Financial Reforms and Challenges Facing the Financial Sector
Given the enhanced level of economic development and the new economic environment following the financial crisis, what’s the next key step for China's financial reforms? As reforms concerning interest rates and exchange rates gradually deepen, which major challenges does China still face in straightening out the price of capital and improving capital efficiency? In the face of a new capital and operating environment, coupled with a gradual disappearance of operating advantages enabled by earlier protective policies, how should banks and other financial institutions adjust their businesses, strengthen corporate governance, prevent systemic risks to ensure the sustainability of their operations? In the face of deregulation and competition, how should they establish market-oriented exit mechanisms?
Moderator:
Speakers
HU Xiaolian,Deputy Governor, The People's Bank of China
DONG Wenbiao,Chairman of the Board of Directors, China Minsheng Bank Corp., Ltd.
ZHU Xiaohuang, CEO and President, China CITIC Bank
Charles LI,,Chief Executive, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing
16:15-17:45 Session IV: High-tech and the transformation of New Media
In the broader TMT field, new technologies and applications have mushroomed, with products and services closer to the real needs of consumers and businesses. How will hardware, software and application innovations tied to the new-generation Internet represented by smart phones and cloud computing, especially mobile internet, profoundly change the industrial competition and social structures, thus creating a new interconnected society? In such times of dramatic technological changes, media content, formats, and business models have all been undergoing significant transformation. Will new media integration attempts such as “content is the king”, “technology-driven”, and “applications as the top priority” eventually all cater to the most basic and real personalized needs for effective information? In the uncertain process of transition towards new media, which historical challenges and opportunities are facing traditional media including newspapers, radio and television and the first-generation Internet platforms? And how will they create a shared future amid competition and cooperation?
Moderator:Don DURFEEGeneral Manager, North Asia, Reuters News
Speakers
Andy SERWER,Managing Editor, Fortune
Edward TIAN, Chairman, China Broadband Capital Partners
Neil SHEN,,Founding & Managing Partner, Sequoia Capital China
Mark TAYLOR,,General Manager of DPE, Greater China Region, Microsoft
17:45-18:25 Closing Speech
Tony BLAIRFormer Prime Minister, Great Britain and Northern Ireland
DAI XiaojingExecutive Director, Stock Exchange Executive Council;President, SEEC Media Group Limited
18:30-19:30 Cocktail Reception
19:30-21:00 Nightcap
Panel 1: Landscape of the Real Estate Market in the Post-Tightening Era
China's latest round of regulatory measures aimed at controlling the domestic real estate market has entered its third year. Meanwhile, the nationwide housing purchase limit has been in effect for more than two years. But the results of these moves still need to be consolidated, and regulation of the real estate market is an ongoing process. With deepening regulation, the purchase limit, which has been the instrument with the strongest administrative characteristic in the latest round of market regulation, is also facing withdrawal pressure, and the real estate market would ultimately enter the "post-purchase limit" era. What are the ways to prevent rebounding housing prices after the withdrawal of the purchase limit? What are the systematic alternatives that can be offered to ensure a smooth exit of the purchase limit? And what development trends can we expect in the real estate market after the exit of the purchase limit? These are all major issues that merit the attention of the real estate industry.
Moderator:MA Ke,Deputy Managing Editor, CAIJING Magazine
Speakers
REN Zhiqiang,Chairman, Hua Yuan Property Co., Ltd.
CHEN Huai,Former Director General, Policy Research Centre, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, The People's Republic of China
Henry CAI, Chairman of Corporate Finance, Asia; Member of Asia Pacific Executive Committee, Deutsche Bank
ZHONG Bin,,Secretary General, China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce
LI Ming,,Chairman of the Board, Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Limited
MAO Daqing,,Executive Vice President, Vanke Group; General Manager, Beijing Vanke Company
Panel 2:The Pension System Predicament and Reform Direction
China established a basic pension insurance system for urban workers in 1990s and it has been running for nearly 20 years. Nonetheless, quite a number of supporting systems haven’t been sorted out. Against the backdrop of rapid population aging, the financial sustainability of the pension system is threatened and thus in urgent need of a comprehensive reform. Over recent years, the coverage of the basic pension insurance system has expanded and new rural pension insurance and new urban pension system have also been established and expanded nationwide. While such efforts have produced fairly impressive results, there isn’t any clear timetable on the introduction of an investment operation system for pension funds albeit the issue was initially put on the agenda. Following a round of heated debates on parametric reforms covering a delay of retirement age, authorities have also clarified that such measures would not be implemented in the near future. As the pension issue is a concern for hundreds of millions of Chinese households, a small change could produce massive ripple effects. Currently, what are the major dilemmas facing the Chinese pension system? And what should be the next step for the pension reform? The solution will require not only policymakers’ top-level designs but also path-finding based on full discussions, brainstorming of ideas, and identification of facts and issues.
Moderator:JIN Liping,Managing Editor, CAIJING Magazine
Speakers
HE Ping,,Director, Research Institute of Social Security, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, The People's Republic of China
ZHENG Bingwen, Director, Institute of Latin America and World Social Security Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
YANG Yansui, Professor, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University
HU Jiye,,Associate professor of Center for Law and Economics, China University of Political Science and Law
XIONG Jun,,Deputy Director General, Asset Allocation & Research Department, National Council For Social Security Fund, The People’s Republic of China
Panel 3: Lawyers’ Role in the Process towards the Full Implementation of the Rule of Law
In China, practicing lawyers still have to struggle against a sense of powerlessness, high risk, as well as failed protection of many legal rights. What should Chinese lawyers do going forward? How should lawyers well position themselves and prevent occupational risks? What kind of role will lawyers play in China's reform process?
Moderator:LUO Changping, Deputy Managing Editor, CAIJING Magazine
Speakers
ZHANG Sizhi,,Lawyer, Wu Luan Zhao Yan Law Firm
ZHANG Qingsong,Deputy Secretary-General, Criminal Committee of the National Bar Association
PU Zhiqiang, Partner and Attorney, Beijing Huayi Law Firm
XU Xin,,Professor, School of Law, Beijing Institute of Technology
CHEN Youxi,, Chairman, Capital Equity Legal Group; Vice Director, Constitute & Human Rights Committee of China Bar Association
SI Weijiang,,Partner, Shanghai Debund Law Office
Panel 4: Deregulation of the Private Financial Services Sector / Microfinance (topics to be determined)
There have been continued calls for deregulation of the private financial services sector. The financial reform in Wenzhou has again ignited hope among private capitalists. Nonetheless, there is a lack of implementation of rules and specific actions. Delays in financial deregulation remain the biggest obstacle for private capital to enter the financial services industry.
Moderator:QIAO Xiaohui, Associate Managing Editor, CAIJING Magazine
Speakers
TANG Min,,Counselor, the State Council; Executive Vice-Chairperson, China Social Entrepreneur Foundation
ZHU Ning,Deputy Director and Professor, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiaotong University
TANG Ning,Founder and CEO, CreditEase
XU Xin,,Professor, School of Law, Beijing Institute of Technology
LIU Ligang,, Head of Research, ANZ Greater China
ZHU Haibin,,Chief Economist for China, J.P. Morgan
Panel 5: Strategies of Luxury Industry in China
China has become the world's second-largest luxury goods market by sales. The capacity of global luxury goods market is expected to grow by 180 billion euros over the next three years, including nearly 20 billion euros in China. The competition will become increasingly fierce. Meanwhile, given increasingly mature consumer behavior in China, combined with consumers’ better understanding of luxury products, the luxury market may be in for a reshuffle. How could established leading luxury brands maintain their edge? And how could luxury brands that lag behind for now or late-movers come from behind? Will excellent Chinese brands also have the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon?
Moderator:CHENG Mingxia,Associate Editor, Chinese Edition, Harvard Business Review
Speakers
Jean-Claude BIVER,,Chairman of the Board, Hublot
Nancy LI,Executive Director, Mission Hills Group
ZHOU Ting,Partner, Bain & Company
HAN Weiwen,,Professor, School of Law, Beijing Institute of Technology
Eva SOOHOO,, Brand General Manager, La Mer
Panel 6: Development of Clean Energy Industry
The global energy landscape is making the transition from one that mainly based on fossil energy to one that is developing towards green energy. Seeking a new model of renewable development amid concerns of resource depletion is the right thing to do and a key responsibility in the development of the clean energy industry. However, development of the clean energy industry in China is similarly beset with challenges, such as global trade disputes, global overcapacity and difficulties in the internationalization of capital. There are signs that investment in clean energy is beginning to cool off substantially in China as gross profits from clean energy dip gradually. Seeking a way to realize low-carbon economic development in China has become a realistic issue that the country needs to address its development of the domestic clean energy industry.
Moderator:SU Qi,Deputy Managing Editor, CAIJING Magazine
Speakers
WANG Yong,,President, Hanergy Holding Group, Ltd
WU Changhua,Director, Greater China, The Climate Group
LI Junfeng, Director General and Research Fellow, National Climate Change Strategy Research and International Cooperation Center
MEI Dewen,,General Manager, China Beijing Environment Exchange
WANG Wenjing,, Professor and Leader of Solar Cell Technology Group, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lars STOLT,, CTO and Managing Director, Solibro GmbH
Note:The aforesaid schedule,all sessions and speakers
in the program are confirmed on the conference program for printing.

《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

参会联系人刘女士 +8010-85657519

 张女士 +8010-85657409

赞助合作朱先生 +8010-85657112

媒体合作何女士 +8010-85650522

《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

财经年会2013

  • 成思危
  • 约翰·霍华德
  • 陈德铭
  • 郭树清
  • 托尼·布莱尔
  • 成思危原全国人民代表大会常务委员会副委员长
  • 约翰·霍华德澳大利亚前总理
  • 陈德铭中华人民共和国商务部部长
  • 郭树清中国证券监督管理委员会主席
  • 托尼·布莱尔英国前首相

《财经》年会:2012预测与战略

  • 陈清泰

    陈清泰
  • 高梁

    高梁
  • 吉恩·蒂德里克

    吉恩·蒂德里克

国有企业与国有资本

  国企体制是中国当前最需突破而又最难突破的一个重大经济问题。2012年以来,国企改革议题又热,各方立场主张迥异。这是上一轮国企改革争论的继续。国企改革下一步如何走?朝哪个方向走?已是不可回避之题。国企是载体,其本质是国有资本,国企进退实则国资的流动和重新配置,更需还原其属性,并将其运用到与民生相关的公共产品上。

  • 秦晓

    秦晓
  • 盛洪

    盛洪
  • 沃伊切赫•达布罗夫斯基

    沃伊切赫•达布罗夫斯基

11月28日 星期三

议题一:中国、美国与全球经济

  始于2008年秋季的金融危机,重创全球经济,欧美主要经济体和金砖国家普遍采用量化宽松货币政策和积极财政政策加以应对。然而,植根于全球不平衡的经济危机,却远非货币"放水"所能解决,财政刺激与投资推动的效应递减,更令新的政经对策难以抉择。2012年以来,欧债危机持续蔓延,凸显结构调整缺位,经济复苏乏力。世界经济长期低迷几成定局,中国必须重新审视可持续发展之道。

  • 奥斯坦奥斯坦
  • 兰德尔兰德尔
  • 雷鼎鸣雷鼎鸣
  • 林毅夫林毅夫
  • 苏尼尔苏尼尔

议题二:中国经济2012年回顾与2013年展望

  2012年,在外需不振和增长方式调整双重压力下,中国经济增速出现持续下滑。如何看待经济增速放缓,是否需要新一轮经济刺激政策,各界众说纷纭。在即将到来的2013年中,中国将面临政府换届,国际经济据势也更加纷繁复杂。中国经济如何实现推进结构转型和保持一定增速的双重目标?如何避免短期举措妨害长期愿景?如何通过深化改革来寻觅新的可持续增长动能?

  • 曹远征曹远征
  • 陈东琪陈东琪
  • 哈继铭哈继铭
  • 何刚何刚
  • 乔虹乔虹

议题三:城镇化进程与土地制度变革

 深化土地制度改革是破除城乡二元结构的必由之路,其现实意义和迫切性日益突出。近年来,国土资源部等部委牵头进行了诸如城乡建设用地增减挂钩、征地制度改革、集体建设用地流转等主题的试点,广东、成都、重庆、等省市亦先后试水,积累了不少改革经验。但由于部分政策存在争议,全国层面的土地制度改革一直未实质推动。

  • 胡存智胡存智
  • 华生华生
  • 黄小虎黄小虎
  • 李铁李铁
  • 周其仁周其仁
11月29日 星期四

议题一:挑战与改革突破口

  历经30年高速增长后,中国经济开始迈入中速增长新阶段。全球化使产业格局与服务业细分态势在金融危机后出现重大调整,而中国内部产业结构调整、产能过剩的城市化进程及服务业仍显薄弱和滞后。难局未破之际,人口老龄化、劳动力成本上涨、资源和环境不可持续等接踵而来。

  • 蔡昉蔡昉
  • 马骏马骏
  • 秦晓秦晓
  • 吴敬琏吴敬琏
  • 许善达许善达

议题二:从法制经济到法治社会

  市场经济、法治社会与民主政治,攸关中国未来命运。30年的持续发展与改革突破,市场经济体制所需的器物层面一马当先,而法治与民主建设仍负重难前,全面改革乃道阻且长。综观中国社会,在个人价值和个人权利为核心的社会意识方面,公权对私权的侵害仍是一大问题。

  • 胡德平胡德平
  • 江平江平
  • 孙立平孙立平
  • 童之伟童之伟
  • 吴晓灵吴晓灵
  • 姚洋姚洋

议题三:深化金融改革与金融业挑战

 随着经济发展水平提高及金融危机后新的经济环境,中国金融改革的下一步关键何在?利率和汇率的改革正逐步深化,理顺资本价格、提高资本效率还面临哪些重要挑战?面对新的资本、经营环境,在政策性保护经营口优势逐步失去之时,银行等金融机构如何调整自身业务

  • 董文标董文标
  • 胡晓炼胡晓炼
  • 李小加李小加
  • 朱小黄朱小黄

议题四:高科技与新媒体转型

  在更广义的TMT领域,新技术与新应用层出不穷,产品与服务更接近大众和商业的真实需求。以智能手机、云计算等为代表的新一代互联网、特别是移动互联的硬件、软件和应用方案创新,将怎样深刻改变产业竞争和社会结构,创造新的互联社会?

  • 杜纳德杜纳德
  • 马克·泰勒马克·泰勒
  • 沈南鹏沈南鹏
  • 苏安迪苏安迪
  • 田溯宁田溯宁

  • 蔡洪平 蔡洪平

  • 何平 何平

  • 浦志强 浦志强

  • 陈淮 陈淮

  • 徐昕 徐昕

  • 拉斯·斯托德 拉斯·斯托德

  • 李明 李明

  • 刘利刚 刘利刚

  • 韩微文 韩微文

  • 任志强 任志强

  • 杨燕绥 杨燕绥

  • 李佳琦 李佳琦

  • 李俊峰 李俊峰

  • 汤敏 汤敏

  • 张青松 张青松

  • 梅德文 梅德文

  • 胡继晔 胡继晔

  • 让-克劳德·比弗 让-克劳德·比弗

  • 唐宁 唐宁

  • 张思之 张思之

  • 后紧缩时代的地产格局  本轮楼市调控,已是第三个年头,而全国性的限购令运行已逾两年,房地产市场在各个层面均出现积极变化。

  • 养老制度困境与改革方向  中国自上世纪90年代建立起城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度,其运行至今已近20年,颇多配套制度并未理顺。

  • 律师在法治进程中的角色   无力感与高风险,以及众多法定权利的落空,使得律师执业环境面临困境。中国律师下一步怎么办?应该如何定位自己并防范职业风险?

  • 民间金融开放  如何让资本血液流入民间经济的末梢,带动中国农民参与活跃的市场经济,是当下中国金融业共同面临的问题,在大银行垄断格局被打破下。

  • 奢侈品中国战略  中国已成为全球第二大奢侈品销售市场。未来三年中全球奢侈品市场增量为1800亿欧元。

  • 清洁能源产业发展之道  全球能源格局正在从以化石能源为主体向绿色能源发展转变。如何在资源枯竭的远景担忧下寻求可再生发展新模式。